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  400. <div id="item10012310" class="journal-entry">
  401. <div class="journal-entry-float-day"><span class="name">Wednesday</span></div><div class="journal-entry-float-date"><span class="month">Jan</span><span class="date">12</span><span class="year">2011</span></div>
  402. <div class="journal-entry-text">
  403. <h2 class="title">
  404. <a class="journal-entry-navigation-current" href="/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html">Tunisia and Algeria: How Protests Put &quot;Arab Regimes on Edge&quot;&nbsp;(Lynch)</a>
  405. </h2>
  406. <div class="journal-entry-tag journal-entry-tag-post-title"><span class="post-snippet-1"><div><p><br><su:badge layout="2" location="http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html"></su:badge>        <g:plusone size="medium" href="http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html"></g:plusone> <script src="http://platform.linkedin.com/in.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
  407. <script type="IN/Share" data-url="http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html" data-counter="right"></script>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-url="http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html" data-count="horizontal" data-via="EANewsFeed">Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><iframe src="//www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/1/12/tunisia-and-algeria-how-protests-put-arab-regimes-on-edge-ly.html;send=false&layout=button_count&width=2500&show_faces=false&action=like&colorscheme=light&font&height=21" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border:none; overflow:hidden; width:250px; height:21px;" allowTransparency="true"></iframe><br></p></div></span> <span class="posted-on"> <img title="Date" alt="Date" class="inline-icon date-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Wednesday, January 12, 2011 at 9:20</span> | <span class="posted-by"> <a href="/home/author/scott-lucas"> <img title="Author" alt="Author" class="inline-icon user-registered-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Scott Lucas</a></span> <span class="posted-in">in <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/category/africa"> <img title="Category" alt="Category" class="inline-icon category-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Africa</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/category/ea-global"> <img title="Category" alt="Category" class="inline-icon category-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />EA Global</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey"> <img title="Category" alt="Category" class="inline-icon category-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />EA Middle East and Turkey</a></span></span> </div>
  408. <div class="body">
  409. <p><em><span class="full-image-float-left ssNonEditable"><span><img style="width: 150px;" src="/storage/blog-post-images/TUNISIA PROTESTS 4.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1294824635181" alt="" /></span></span>Marc Lynch, <a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/11/arab_regimes_on_edge">writing for Foreign Policy</a>, considers the wider significance of the demonstrations in Tunisia and Algeria.</em></p>
  410. <p><em>He also raises a question --- "&nbsp;Do the protests need to be channeled into an organized political or social movement in order to press clear political demands?" --- and makes a point: "Tunisians and Algerians didn't need an Obama speech to begin their protests, even if they anxiously watch Washington now for signs of support."</em></p>
  411. <p><em>That is a telling admission: only last Thursday, Lynch was writing, "We really could talk about this being Obama's 'Arab Spring'":&nbsp;</em></p>
  412. <p>It's very clear that most Arab regimes are on edge over the possibility of the spread of the protests in&nbsp;<a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/02/tunisia_s_protest_wave_where_it_comes_from_and_what_it_means_for_ben_ali" target="_blank">Tunisia</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/09/algeria_s_national_protesta" target="_blank">Algeria</a>. Arab columnists and TV shows have been excitedly debating the real causes of the protests and what they might mean, while in country after country warnings are being sounded of a repeat of the "Tunisia scenario." It's not at all clear whether these protests actually will spread yet, as regimes on high alert will not be taken by surprise and local conditions vary dramatically.</p>
  413. <p>The protests have already sparked a region-wide debate about the prospects for political change and the costs of political repression and economic stagnation. The discussion of the "Tunisia scenario" is everywhere. In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood warned today that the impending price rises&nbsp;<a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/06/jordans_troubling_new_parliament" target="_blank">planned</a>&nbsp;by the new government will lead to an&nbsp;<a href="http://aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DC13D82E-94BC-4200-94CE-34049F1CDFE6.htm" target="_blank">unprecedented explosion</a>&nbsp;along the North African model -- which is the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/1552" target="_blank">lead story</a>&nbsp;in Lebanon's&nbsp;<em>al-Akhbar</em>. In Egypt, Trade and Industry Minister Rashid Mohammed Rashid&nbsp;<a href="http://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/%D8%B1%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%C2%AB%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A%C2%BB-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%83-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9" target="_blank">ruled out</a>&nbsp;a "Tunisia scenario" in his country over the economy, though many columnists and political activists disagree. Leading Saudi columnist Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed today seems&nbsp;<a href="http://www.aawsat.com//leader.asp?section=3&amp;article=603341&amp;issueno=11732" target="_blank">worried</a>, rather than excited, that protesters may have broken the psychological barrier against demonstrating and raises the specter of a "domino theory" by which even currently calm Arab states may soon be threatened.</p>
  414. <p>The debate is being carried by social media and by satellite television, despite the outsized efforts by most of the regimes to silence whatever media falls under their control. From Kuwait and Tunisia's moves to ban al-Jazeera to traditional repression of local journalists to the escalating crackdown against Facebook, Twitter, and other social media, Arab regimes are trying to keep control of the narrative. But it doesn't seem to be working. Even status quo media outlets are being forced to discuss the events and to entertain unsettling questions.</p>
  415. <p>It still is not at all obvious that these protests will sustain themselves, lead to revolutions, or even force major changes in the policies of their regimes. But they have already seared themselves into Arab political discourse. Defenders of the regimes generally try to define the events as food and price riots, or else as externally fomented terrorism. Few independent columnists or activists agree with the idea that these are simply food and price riots, or external terrorism. They point to the underlying political problems which have enabled the economic mismanagement and corruption and lack of opportunity. How the events are framed will have real significance for the response.</p>
  416. <p>In the meantime, I'd like to throw out two interesting questions about the developing events....</p>
  417. <p><a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/11/arab_regimes_on_edge"><strong><em>Read full article....</em></strong></a></p>
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  423. <div class="journal-entry-tag-post-body-line3"><span class="tagged-with">tagged <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/abd-al-rahman-al-rashed"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/algeria"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Algeria</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/foreign-policy-magazine"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Foreign Policy magazine</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/marc-lynch"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Marc Lynch</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/rashid-mohammed-rashid"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Rashid Mohammed Rashid</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/tunisia"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />Tunisia</a></span>, <span class="tag-element"><a rel="tag" href="/home/tag/al-akhbar"> <img title="Tag" alt="Tag" class="inline-icon tag-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" />al-Akhbar</a></span></span> </div>
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  446. function toggleReferenceMode() {
  447. if (isAddCommentsVisible) {
  448. hideObject(document.getElementById("add-comment-area"));
  449. showObject(document.getElementById("add-reference-area"));
  450. } else {
  451. showObject(document.getElementById("add-comment-area"));
  452. hideObject(document.getElementById("add-reference-area"));
  453. }
  454. isAddCommentsVisible = !isAddCommentsVisible;
  455. }
  456. E.addListener("postform", "keydown", Squarespace.SessionAuthorizationKey.acquireAuthKey, '');
  457. // ]]>
  458. </script>
  459. <form method="post" style="margin: 0; padding: 0;" name="postform" id="postform" action="/process/CreateJournalEntryComment?moduleId=5781342&amp;entryId=10012310">
  460. <div class="notice-box" style="margin-top: 2em;" id="add-comment-area">
  461. <h3 class="caption"><img title="Post" alt="Post" class="inline-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" style="background:transparent url(/universal/images/core-resources/icons/smalllight/comment.png) top left no-repeat;"/>Post a New Comment</h3>
  462. <div class="caption-text">
  463. Enter your information below to add a new comment.
  464. <br/><br/>
  465. <a href="javascript:toggleReferenceMode();">My response is on my own website &raquo;</a>
  466. </div>
  467. <script type="text/javascript" src="/universal/scripts/storable-fields.js?CE=45"></script>
  468. <div class="input-field">
  469. <div id="authorName_title" class="title">
  470. Author:
  471. &nbsp;<a id="storedFieldControls" style="display: none; font-size: 9px;" href="javascript:forgetSavedFields();">(forget stored information)</a>
  472. </div>
  473. <input class="text" type="text" style="width: 200px;" name="authorName" id="authorName" value="" maxlength="50" tabindex="2"/>
  474. </div>
  475. <div class="input-field">
  476. <div id="authorEmail_title" class="title"> Author Email (optional):
  477. </div>
  478. <input class="text" type="text" style="width: 200px;" name="authorEmail" id="authorEmail" value="" maxlength="255" tabindex="3"/>
  479. </div>
  480. <div class="input-field">
  481. <div id="authorUrl_title" class="title"> Author URL (optional):
  482. </div>
  483. <input class="text" type="text" style="width: 200px;" name="authorUrl" id="authorUrl" value="" maxlength="255" tabindex="4"/>
  484. </div>
  485. <script type="text/javascript">
  486. YAHOO.util.Event.addListener(window, "load", function() {
  487. document.getElementById("storedFieldControls").style.display = (Squarespace.StorableFields.isDataSaved("authorName", "authorEmail", "authorUrl") ? "inline" : "none");
  488. Squarespace.StorableFields.recall("authorName", "authorEmail", "authorUrl");
  489. });
  490. function forgetSavedFields() {
  491. Squarespace.StorableFields.forget("authorName", "authorEmail", "authorUrl");
  492. document.getElementById("storedFieldControls").style.display = "none";
  493. }
  494. </script>
  495. <script type="text/javascript">
  496. function expandBody() { b = document.getElementById("body"); b.style.height = (b.offsetHeight + 40) + "px"; }
  497. function shrinkBody() { b = document.getElementById("body"); b.style.height = (b.offsetHeight - 40) + "px"; }
  498. </script>
  499. <div id="body_title" style="padding-bottom: 5px; float: left;"> Post:
  500. </div>
  501. <div style="padding-bottom: 5px; float: right;"><a title="Increase the size of the comment area." href="javascript:expandBody();">&#8595;</a> | <a title="Decrease the size of the comment area." href="javascript:shrinkBody();">&#8593;</a></div>
  502. <div class="clearer">&nbsp;</div>
  503. <div style="padding-bottom: 5px;"><textarea rows="15" cols="60" name="body" id="body" tabindex="5"></textarea></div>
  504. <div style="padding-bottom: 5px;">Some HTML allowed: &lt;a href=&quot;&quot; title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;abbr title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;acronym title=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;b&gt; &lt;blockquote cite=&quot;&quot;&gt; &lt;code&gt; &lt;em&gt; &lt;i&gt; &lt;strike&gt; &lt;strong&gt;</div>
  505. <div class="footer">
  506. <div class="notice-box-alert">
  507. <div class="icon"><img title="Alert" alt="Alert" class="inline-icon" rel="smalllight" src="/universal/images/transparent.png" style="background:transparent url(/universal/images/core-resources/icons/smalllight/alert.png) top left no-repeat;"/></div>
  508. <div class="text">
  509. <strong>Comment Moderation Enabled</strong><br/>
  510. Thank you for your comment. Comments from anonymous sources will not appear until they have been cleared by a website editor- we'll aim to do this as quickly as we can.
  511. </div>
  512. </div>
  513. <p style="padding-bottom: 10px;"><input class="checkbox" type="checkbox" name="followOptIn" id="followOptIn" value="true" tabindex="6"/>
  514. <span onclick="toggleNotify()" style="cursor: pointer; cursor: hand">Notify me of follow-up comments via email.</span>
  515. </p>
  516. <br/>
  517. <input type="hidden" id="authKey" name="authKey" value=""/>
  518. <input style="width: 150px;" tabindex="6" class="button" type="button" name="createPostButton" id="createPostButton" value="Create Post" onclick="submitContent(true);"/> &nbsp;&nbsp;
  519. <input style="width: 150px;" tabindex="7" class="button" type="button" name="previewPostButton" id="previewPostButton" value